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The new Basel III International Banking Treaty substantially changes the categorization of gold, seeking to avoid another global crisis. Central banks are again intensifying the purchases of physical gold that will be kept in the vaults of the institutions unlike before that they could have it in an unallocated or on paper form.
Banks are facing new liquidity requirements, leading many investors to wait for banks to be discouraged from trading gold futures in London and futures contracts in Comex. That can lead to more price volatility and, on the margin, some bank customers who have had unassigned gold and silver accounts will seek to maintain their exposure by buying physical bullion.
These new changes also occur at a time of accelerating monetary inflation and it is very likely that the combination of the two events will drive the price up.
For now, we recapitulate that from the end of 2018 to mid-2020, gold presented a rise of 40%, then it corrected to almost 20% in February 2021 and now it seems to have resumed an increase of almost 10%. Placing us in a cumulative rise of 30%.
We'll see what happens this year and next...
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